Our pick'em vs the NFL.com experts
Every card we posted, graded
Two products, never added together. The pick'em picks every game straight up: the betting favorite in weeks 1-3, the team our model has winning from week 4. The Spread Sheet picked every game against the spread in weeks 1-3 and picks the winner outright from week 4. Both are posted before the week's first kickoff. Picks, not stakes.
| Week | Pick'em (straight up) | Spread Sheet (ATS) | Spread Sheet moneyline |
|---|
Us vs the experts
Why the favorite keeps winning
Nobody has beaten the number
| Source | ATS | Cover % |
|---|
The upsets
| Game | Final | Favorite | Experts who called it | Our model |
|---|
Every upset this season
| Wk | Game | Final | Favorite | Experts who called it | Our model |
|---|
Where the market is behind
Total points each team has beaten or missed the spread by this season. A big positive number means the market keeps underrating a team; a big negative one means it keeps pricing them too high.
Games that test the storylines
What we're taking from it
How this is graded
Every result is graded from final scores. Expert picks come from NFL.com's weekly picks articles; a straight-up pick is the team their predicted score has winning, and an ATS pick is graded at the line printed in their article. Our picks are graded at the line we posted. The experts' majority vote is the side most of the five took.
Samples are small. Over a few weeks, one or two games move a record several points, so we read the patterns, not the exact order of the leaderboard.
Picks posted before kickoff, graded after
Every card on this page was posted before the week's first game. Members get the picks, the track record and the post-mortems in Discord.